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Housing And Mortgage Predictions For 2011

Bill Lublin — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 13:45:27 +0000

With 2010 coming to a close, the “experts” are out in full force, making predictions for next year’s housing and mortgage markets on business television and in the papers.

Predictions for 2011 are wide-ranging:

Some say home prices will rise in 2011
Some say home prices will fall in 2011
Some say mortgage rates will rise in 2011
Some say mortgage rates will fall in 2011

The problem with housing and mortgage predictions is that — like all predictions — they’re just educated guesses about the future. Nobody knows what will really happen with the housing and mortgage markets in 2011. All anyone can do is theorize. As laypersons, though, it can be hard to separate theory from fact.

Television can make that task even more difficult at times.

As an example, when a well-dressed economist goes on CNBC and presents a clear, succinct argument for why home prices will fall on 2011, we’re inclined to believe the analysis and conclusion. After all, the outcome seems plausible outcome given the facts. But then, immediately after, a different economist presents an opposite argument — that home prices will rise in 2011 – and her analysis seems sound, too.

Even Freddie Mac can’t see the future.

Last year, the government group predicted mortgage rates to 6 percent in 2010. That never happened, of course. Instead, conforming mortgage rates dropped over a 7-month period this year to levels best be described as “historic”. Freddie Mac couldn’t have been more wrong.

So, what’s a Philadelphia homeowner to believe?

About the only thing that’s certain right now is that mortgage rates remain low by historical standards, and that home prices do, too. Also, that both housing and mortgage markets appear to be riding momentum higher into 2011. This suggests that it will be more expensive to buy and finance a home by the end of 2011. However no matter what the result, people who purchase homes for the right reasons, shelter, stability of housing expense, and a place to make their own, will always benefit.

Until that time, however, predictions are just guesses.

Looking At The 2010 Predictions For Housing Markets And Mortgage Rates

Bill Lublin — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 13:45:27 +0000

2010 is just a few days old and already the “experts” are making predictions for the year.

Housing calls and mortgage rate predictions run the gamut:

Home prices will fall in 2010
Home prices will rise in 2010
Mortgage rates will rise in 2010
Mortgage rates will rise by a lot in 2010

Given how varied their outlooks, it’s clear that the professionals have no better view of the future than the amateurs. An expert can make an educated guess, but it’s a guess nonetheless.

Last year, Wall Streeters predicted a 25% pullback in home prices. 12 months later, we know prices didn’t fall. Wall Street also predicted higher mortgage rates for 2009. That prediction was fulfilled.

There’s a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what’s coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.

In a recent article in Real Estate Trends, it was predicted that the Philadelphia market would appreciate at a rate that would make it one of the top 20 markets in the country. And based on the early activity this year, demand for our moderate priced housing may well lead to increased prices.

The only thing that’s certain right now is that mortgage rates are historically low, the government is giving tax credits to qualified buyers, and there’s a lot of good “deals” in housing. Make the most of what’s out there today because it will take 12 months for us to look back and know which predictions were right and which were wrong.

Until then, predictions are just opinions and guesses.

For Philly Chocolate Lovers

Anne Rubin — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:39:02 +0000

Except for the first three years of my life and the time I spent in college, my life has been in Philly and I don’t understand anyone that doesn’t appreciate this city.

Although my residence is in a suburb of Philly, Elkins Park, I spend a lot of time in the city and enjoying all that it has to offer. I can spout off lots of wonderful things to do right now, like seeing the Gorky exhibit at the Philadelphia Museum of Art. Or seeing the production of Little Shop of Horrors a the Prince Music Theatre.

But if you are a chocolate lover, than Philly has the most unbelievable place to go. Max Brenner’s at 1500 Walnut Street is absolutely the best chocolate experience I have ever had. They serve breakfast, lunch and dinner, but what I experienced was their dessert. They have a separate dessert menu with what seemed like endless pages of selections of every type of dessert. And just about every dessert had chocolate. There were seven of us reading the menu and every few seconds someone was saying “OMG”. We would thing we would find the right one to order and then you would turn the page and start all over again.

Each one of us ordered something different and they were all wonderful. Banana Split Waffles, Melting Marshmellow Crepes, The Golden Heart, Warm Chocolate Soup, Truffle made of 70% Cocoa and two different ice cream sandwiches, but these were not your ordinary ice cream sandwiches. My only suggestion to our server was that they should have a sample platter. But then my sister-in-law reminded me that I created my own by tasting a little of each person’s dessert.

The atmosphere is hip and loud but fun, full of wood and chocolate smells and great service. And when you are finished eating, stop in the chocolate shop for great food and gifts. But go after you eat when you are full so that you don’t buy everything in site.

I love Philly and look forward to sharing some more of the highlights this great city has to offer. Enjoy your chocolate and let me know what you think.

Philadelphia’s Brotherly Love and Social Media

Bill Lublin — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:10:50 +0000

I don’t mean to be sexist in the title of this post, especially since there are so many women involved in the organizations, both charitable and social media centered that are the focus of this post, but the term is a natural when you talk about Philadelphia and charity at the same time.

I attended the last month, the Philadelphia chapter of the Social Media Club, organized by Gloria Bell and Annie Heckenberger to discuss the charitable efforts of BlameDrewsCancer , Twestival Philadelphia, and the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network as well as the use of social media in general for charitable purposes.

I always enjoy the SMCPhilly meetings, the people are interesting, the topics are fun, and its generally a good time as well as a learning experience. This time was even a little more special for me though.

First the panel talked about what they do. Twestival is a social media charity from the ground up, created because of the popularity of twitter. Their web site says

A Twestival or Twitter-Festival is a global series of events organized by volunteers around the world under short timescales, which bring people offline for a great cause.

The concept was a great success. Again, their website really says it best;

The first Twestival Global was launched with a tweet on 8 January 2009 and barely a month later on 12 February, there were 202 cities around the world hosting events to benefit charity: water. Over 1,000 volunteers, crowdsourced through Twitter, contributed their skills, over 10,000 people participated globally and countless others donated or used their creativity to ensure 100% of all proceeds went direct to charity: water projects. The total raised in one day was over $250k through these events and online donations; resulting in 55 wells with more than 17,000 people served in Uganda, Ethiopia, and India.

During the meeting the conversation focused on Twestival Local, an event taking place here on September 12, 2009 to benefit Gift of Life Family House, a non-profit organization providing temporary lodging and supportive services to transplant patients and families in our area. As of this writing, the local twestivals have raised over $233,000 and still have 40 cities left to report.

BlamedrewsCancer , while a serious cause, is a response to the challenges faced by Drew Olanoff after he was diagnosed with cancer on May 20th 2009. Its explained on the organization’s website

On May 20th, 2009, Drew Olanoff was diagnosed with cancer. Ever since that day, Drew has blamed everything on his cancer. Losing his keys, misplacing his wallet, Twitter being slow, the Phillies losing, etc.

Why? Because you have to beat up on Cancer to win… and you can help out.

Blame Drew’s Cancer for anything you want by tweeting with the hashtag #BlameDrewsCancer and it’ll come here. When Drew beats Cancer we hope to have sponsors that will donate a dollar for every participant to our partner, LIVESTRONG.

The campaign here is again based on social media engagement with off-line participation in events like a blame-a-thon that was held on September 9

The whole concept is both courageous and whimsical at the same time. Having lost my mother, father, sister and other family members to cancer, this one has a real warm spot in my heart.

The Pancreatic Cancer Action Network is a more traditional charity, using social media to reach out and engage their community through social media, and as a result, they have different challenges. Its interesting to me to see the difference between their approach to community building, and the evangelistic style of BlameDrewsCancer , a difference that is as much geenrational as it is social media based.

And the SMC Philadelphia crew has to get a little love here too for setting up the opportunity for these groups to share the challenges, success, and techniques to help communities help themselves “do well by doing good” Though the causes are all different and their approach to community building and community service are all different, they are all terrific causes, fueled by volunteers and all worthy of your support. I hope you give it…

Cancer, comedy and a cure: (pulverblog.pulver.com)
HOW TO: Do Good on Twitter (mashable.com)
Twitterers prepare for Twestival (guardian.co.uk)
Today’s the day: Blame Drew’s Cancer with the all-day Blame-A-Thon! (downloadsquad.com)

Don’t Run Out of Gas!

Bill Lublin — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:31:50 +0000

If you’ve ever been grilling for friends or family and emptied your gas tank mid-burger, you’ll appreciate the GasWatch Propane Level Indicator and Safety Gauge.

For less than $20, the fits-most-grills appliance connects between the gas tank and the regulator, clearly displaying the propane left until a refill is needed.

When the needle falls to red, grillers can expect another 15 minutes of cooking until total flame out. The method is reportedly more reliable than the magnetic tank gauge method that involves pouring hot water down the side of the tank and reading a temperature-sensitive ink spot.

Additionally, if the GasWatch gauge senses a leak, it shuts down the flow of propane to keep the grill from catching fire.

July 4th is behind us, but there’s lots of grilling left in the season. Pick up a GasWatch propane gauge at a local Home Depot or hardware store, or buy one online at Amazon.com.

Today’s Real Estate Myths Challenged

admin — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 13:10:54 +0000

“I am going to wait until the market bottoms out to buy.”

Is there ever a perfect time to buy? Yes, when you need or want to move. I hear it quite often … “I am going to hold off until the market bottoms out.” But what you don’t realize is that when the market “bottoms out” that means it is already starting to turn around and with that can come stiff competition when making an offer to buy the home of your dreams. Everyone tends to scramble to get the best deal leaving you contending with multiple offers on the home you want — and before you know it, poof … it’s a seller’s market!

“Sellers are desperate.”

No, most sellers are NOT desperate. Simple as that. Unless there is some unforeseen disaster (carrying 2 mortgages because their buyer took off the night before settlement and they are now carrying 2 homes would be a good example of a disaster that comes to mind) … sellers are not as desperate as the media would have you believe. Real estate is VERY localized. Fact, Philadelphia and it’s surrounding suburbs have not been hit as hard as the rest of the country. Overall, we have only seen a slight decrease in home prices and now that spring is around the corner and interest rates are super low, I am seeing a huge increase in activity. My best guess would say that the Spring market is going to be booming if the rates remain at all time lows.

“I am going to wait to see if the rates go any lower.”

Rates are currently under 6% if you have a decent credit score! They haven’t been this low in years. I’m sure you’ve heard the saying … “You snooze you lose.” No one can predict when the rates are going to bottom out, just the same as no one can predict when home prices are going to bottom out, if they could there would be a lot of millionaires in the world and most of us aren’t millionaires. Home prices do not necessarily coincide with interest rates. For example, even if the home drops in price and the interest rate goes up, you lost money in the long term. Rates are low NOW and Spring is the busiest marketing time of the year … Why? Most people like to do their moving when their children are out of school and before the school year begins plus they have the additional cushion of their income tax refunds. If I had a crystal ball, I would see a busy spring this year even if the rates do not go any lower.

Philly Bike Share

APerry — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:06:05 +0000

I was recently visiting Washington D.C. and was pleasantly surprised to see bicycles everywhere. After probing a few businessmen for some insight on the abundance of two wheelers, I learned that Washington, D.C. has a bike sharing program where people pay a small annual fee for the right to borrow bikes from any of the ten downtown depots. The program encourages less traffic, decreased pollution and a healthier lifestyle. I also understand that Denver and Minneapolis utilized a similar program during the Democratic and Republican conventions.

What a great idea for Philadelphia! With the continued growth and development of our downtown area, the City would see a positive impact immediately. Philly Car Share has been a hit…could Philly Bike Share be far off? I will have my annual fee ready for its debut.

Remembering Those That Serve

admin — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 11:22:41 +0000

September 11, 2008

Remembering 9/11 like it was yesterday, tonight I sat and watched 102 Minutes That Changed The World on the History Channel, alone. My family sleeping, I sat in front of my TV with my jaw as open as it was that day. Most reading this will remember what they were doing that day. How you first heard. The fear of the unknown. The first person you called to see if they were OK.

I cried once again watching the pure shock on people’s faces, the police and firefighters, running into those buildings not knowing their horrific fate. The heroes of that day. As time goes on and we go about our daily lives, many of us forget these men and women put there lives on the line for our safety everyday. Firefighters, police, our military; strangers helping strangers.

There have been many documentaries since 9/11/2001. Hollywood has even tried to depict the tragedy, surely too soon for most of us. 102 Minutes That Changed The World, for some reason, was different. Maybe the raw footage put together in real time, maybe the feeling of being so close to what New Yorkers experienced that day, some of the toughest people you will ever meet, crying silently not knowing what to do or where to go.

Or maybe the fact that today I am a Mother, I was not back in 2001, and I cannot help but wonder what the world holds for my son and that is the scariest and saddest feeling I have ever had. And the irony of that statement is that at the end of 102 Minutes they showed a child, in all of her innocence say that the World Trade Center is gone while watching from her window as the second tower collapsed.

I remember the unity of our country in the days and months that followed, there was an American Flag flying from almost every neighbor’s house, in every neighborhood. Today I look around and it just seems people have forgotten how vulnerable we are as a country, how vulnerable we are as human beings in such a violent world..

Even the little things we do mean something to someone. I have to wonder why it usually takes something bad to bring people together and why do people only come together for a short time? What happened on 9/11 angers me as much as it saddens and scares me. We can’t just turn our TV’s off with the hope that it will all go away.

Thank you to the police, the firefighters, our military and all of those who live to protect us risking their lives every day. And never forget those who perished on September 11, 2001.

Stinky Cheese!

APerry — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 13:40:20 +0000

I went to the shore last weekend to visit with my wife Christine’s family. My brother-in-law asked me to pick up some “stinky cheese” before coming down. He is from Delaware and does most of his shopping at a supermarket. Of course, there are not many “stinky cheese” options at the local supermarket. I went to DiBruno Brothers on 9th Street and picked up the stinkiest wedge of sharp provolone money could buy. In addition, I bought olives stuffed with sharp provolone, roasted peppers and imported capicolla. Lastly, I stopped at Cacia’s Bakery to pick up a couple dozen small rolls.

I couldn’t make it the 2 hours to the shore. I was hungry and all I could smell was the sharp provolone. About half way there I pulled over and made myself a small sandwich with sharp provolone, capicolla and roasted peppers. The rest of the ride was a delight. I popped in one of my many Sinatra CD’s to top things off. When I got to the shore everyone was so hap py to see me. Not because I am great company, rather because I came bearing gifts. I was the envy of the room. You see, I get to work in South Philadelphia. I have to admit – sometimes I take it for granted.

My Adventures In Renting

Mary Bauman — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 13:35:58 +0000

Photo courtesy of creativecommons.org and Joeltelling

It’s known that owning your own home is more financially and personally full filling then renting. I would love to own a home in the next 2-3 years, but as a somewhat fresh out of college young’n I’m stuck with renting (for now).

My apartment is a highrise in a beautiful neighborhood in North East Philadelphia. There is a park across the street, shopping around the corner and it’s very close to work. So what is there to complain about? I’m noticing things lately that I hadn’t paid attention to before and it’s raising my awareness to how great my own place would be.

My cable and internet connection is lost for hours on end more than once a week. I have Comcast and they keep telling me our building has a connection problem, they send someone out to fix it and then the problem occurs again. Out of all of my friend’s that rent, my complex is the only one that charges it’s tenants to use the pool. My bathroom has no fan it it, so anytime someone showers the temperture turns into that of the Amazon Rain Forest. Did I mention getting stuck in the building’s elevator the other day?

I know my first home is out there somewhere. For now I’ll rent and begin my home buyer education and just hope I don’t get stuck in the elevator any time soon.