C21AGVoices

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day meeting today in Washington D.C. It’s the group’s first meeting of 2011 — one of 8 scheduled for the year.

The Fed meets every 45 days, on average. Its last meeting was December 14, 2010.

Rate shoppers and home buyers should make a note. Mortgage rates and home affordability could change dramatically beginning tomorrow afternoon.

Because Wall Street watches FOMC meetings closely, so should you. The meetings provide insight on the future of U.S. monetary policy, as told by the nation’s central banker. Investors make trades based on the FOMC’s commentary which is one reason why mortgage rates tend to undulate through the hours leading up to the FOMC’s adjournment, and the days immediately after.

Wall Street is shifting old bets, and placing new ones.

A terrific example of this is what happened after the Fed’s November 3, 2010 meeting.

In its post-meeting press release, the Federal Reserve announced a new, $600 billion, market-bolstering plan dubbed “QE2”. Wall Street had widely expected the Fed to create the program, but had underestimated its size.

Starting a $600 billion program sparked fears of a Fed-led inflation run, which, in turn, caused mortgage markets to deteriorate in a hurry. In the 3 days following the program’s announcement, mortgage rates spiked to multi-month highs and have not since recovered.

QE2 marked the beginning of the end of the Refi Boom and low rates. Today, conforming rates in Pennsylvania are relatively low as compared to higher, but are much higher than they were prior to the FOMC’s November 2010 meeting.

Then, December’s FOMC meeting did little to change the direction of rates. We shouldn’t expect that January’s will, either. After the FOMC’s 2:15 PM ET adjournment Wednesday, mortgage rates should resume climbing, as they have done for the past 10 weeks.

If you’re shopping for a mortgage rate, therefore, the prudent move is to lock prior to Wednesday’s FOMC adjournment because, after once the Fed’s outlook is released, it will be too late.

Sales of new homes rose sharply in December, posting a 17.5 percent gain from the month prior.

According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Home Sales climbed to 329,000 in December, besting November by close to 50,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

Last month’s reading is an 8-month high for New Home Sales, and the latest in a series of signals that housing is improving in Palmyra and around the country.

Note that December’s Existing Homes Sales and Building Permits reports also showed marked gains last month, climbing 12 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

Furthermore, an interesting pattern is emerging in the price points of home sales. The highest levels of relative growth are occurring within the “move-up buyer” segments. Entry-level price points are lagging the market, as a whole.

December’s New Home Sales data breaks down by price point as follows:

• Homes under $200,000 : 36% of the market (-9% from November)
• Homes between $200,000-$299,999 : 32% of the market (+7% from November)
• Homes between $300,000-$499,999 : 27% of the market (+7% from November)

Luxury homes accounted for less than 5% of the newly-built home market, suggesting that Pennsylvania homeowners are either not “buying new” as frequently, or are choosing to renovate their existing properties instead.

The 2010 housing market finished on a tear, and that momentum is carrying forward into 2011. Expect the spring season to show strongly, putting pressure on home prices to rise.

Coupled with rising mortgage rates, the long-term cost of homeownership is unlikely to be as low as it is today.

Each month, in conjunction with the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Census Bureau releases its New Residential Construction report. The report is comprised of several sections, one of which counts the number of homes that have “broken ground” in Pennsylvania and nationwide.

They’re called “Housing Starts” and, by most measures, they faded quickly as 2010 came to a close.

According to the Census Bureau’s report, Housing Starts of single-family homes fell to 417,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annual basis. The figure marks a 9 percent drop-off from November, and is the lowest reading since May 2009.

Not surprisingly, the press went bearish on housing post-release:

• U.S. Home Building Stuck Near 50-Year Lows (AFP)
• Housing Starts Slowed Sharply In December (New York Times)
• Housing Starts Fall In December To One-Year Low (Bloomberg)

Despite being truthful, these headlines are somewhat misleading. They each ignore a key element of December’s New Residential Construction report — Building Permits. Building Permits rose 6 percent to an 8-month high last month.

A building permit is a local-government certification that authorizes home construction. 

Permits are a precursor to Housing Starts with 82% of homes starting construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. More permits in December, therefore, should lead to more Housing Starts in January and February.

It’s unclear whether permits were up because the economy was improving, or because builders raced to beat new building code for 2011. Regardless, expect additional “new home” supplies this spring which would ordinarily help home prices drop if not for the normal surge in spring buyers to gobble those new homes up.

Look for home prices to stay flat, but with rising mortgage rates contributing to higher costs of homeownership overall.

When your CDs, DVDs and game discs are “skipping”, most times, a simple cleaning will set them right.

Make sure you clean your discs properly, though. Clean them the wrong way and you could damage your discs forever. You might also cause your electronic devices permanent damage.

There’s lots of remedies for skipping CDs, DVDs, and game discs, but the following method is known to be reliable for all but the toughest scratches and dings.  First, you’ll need some tools:

1. A flat surface
2. A soft, lint-free cloth
3. Specialized cleaning solution, or plain rubbing alcohol

Take the cloth and, holding the disc between your thumb and forefinger, wipe from the center to the edge in a straight line. Repeat this step until you’ve removed all of the surface dust from the disc.  Next, apply the cleaning solution (or rubbing alcohol) to the cloth directly and wipe the disc in the same manner — from center to edge.

Lastly, lay the disc flat and allow it to dry.

If the above method does not repair your disc(s), consider an off-the-shelf, disc repair system for more heavy-duty scratches. Disc repair products can look expensive with prices tags as high as $60, but as compared to the cost of buying new music, movies, or games, the investment could make sense. Just make sure to read product labels for their limitations before purchasing.

Its snowing outside as I write this and the city is readying itself for another round of snowfall, but the business of the country goes on even while we run around to pick up bread and eggs and milk out of fear of being left at home without the ability to make French toast.

And  along those lines, today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-to-0 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that since December’s meeting, economic growth is ongoing, but at a pace deemed “insufficient” to make a material impact on the jobs market. In addition, the Fed said household spending “picked up” late last year, although it continues to be held back by joblessness, tight credit and lower housing wealth.

This is similar to the language used in the FOMC’s November and December 2010 statements.

Also like its last two statements, the Fed used this month’s press release to re-affirm its plan to keep the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, and to keep its $600 billion bond market support package in place.

And finally, of particular interest to Rhawnhurst home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers, for the second straight month, the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement contained an entire paragraph detailing the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of managing inflation levels, while fostering maximum employment.

The Fed acknowledges progress toward this goal, but calls that progress “disappointingly slow”. Inflation is too low right now, and joblessness too high.

Over time, the Fed expects both measurements to improve.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC has been positive since the statement’s release. Mortgage rates in Philadelphia are unchanged, but poised to improve.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 1-day event, March 15, 2011.

Credit card debt, left unchecked, can pile up quickly. Especially for debtors making minimum payments.  

According to the Federal Reserve, a credit card balance of $5,000 at 23.99 percent APR won’t pay off for 16,127 years. That’s one reason why it’s important to manage your credit card rates, and renegotiate them whenever possible.

In this 4-minute piece from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll learn the tested tactics that can cut a credit card rate, and get monthly payments to a more manageable range. And it’s do-it-yourself — no debt management firms required.

Some of the tips in the video include:

• Compare your current rate to the rate offered to new customers. Ask the lender for “new customer rate” if it’s lower.
• If your credit score has improved since application, ask for an interest rate more reflective of your current credit score.
• Be nice to the customer service representative. Kindness helps.

Managing debt is an important part of household budgeting so if you’re finding your credit card payments and/or rates too high for your liking, try following the instructions as described in the video. And, above all else, be persistent. The credit card companies won’t likely approve your first request.

Homebuilder confidence held firm for the second straight month this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

The monthly Housing Market Index registered 16 out of a possible 100. January’s reading is three points higher than the 2010 low-point, set in September, and in-line with last year’s average reading.

According to the NAHB, the market for newly-built, single family homes remains relatively weak “following a below-expectations finish in 2010”. Builders expect a better 2011.

The Housing Market Index dates to 1985. It’s a composite of surveys which gauge the builders’ perceptions of the new home-buying market.

There are 3 surveys and they ask:

1. How would you rate market conditions for sales of new homes today?
2. How would you rate market conditions for sales of new homes 6 months from now?
3. How would you rate the foot traffic of prospective buyers of new homes?

The answers are then collated and weighted, and used to produce the Housing Market Index.

In January, market conditions for current and future sales were deemed to be flat. Foot traffic is seen as increasing. For homebuyers of new homes in Mount Holly , this data may foretell of more bidding wars in the months ahead.

More active buyers means more competition for homes. It may also mean fewer concessions from builders as confidence starts rising.

If you’re in the market for a newly-built home, watching the Housing Market Index may be sensible. Each builder is different, of course, but as the overall market sentiment falls, buyers can be more likely to get “a deal”. That’s not the case once confidence is rising.

The HMI is plateaued. If it resumes rising later this year, expect new homes to get more costly.

Existing Home Sales surged 12 percent last month, closing 2010’s housing market with strength. An “existing home” is a home that cannot be categorized as new construction; a resale.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, seasonally-adjusted, annualized Existing Home Sales figures climbed by more than a half-million units in December as compared to November. It’s the 3rd straight month of home resale improvement nationwide.

Sales volume is now as high as it’s been since May 2010 — just after the federal home buyer tax credit’s expiration.

In addition, the number of months needed to sell the complete, current home inventory at the current pace of sales fell by 1.4 months, tying December for the biggest one-month home supply improvement in 2 years.

It’s yet another signal that the housing market is in recovery. Not that this data should surprise anyone. November’s Pending Home Sales report told us to expect it two weeks ago.

Broken down by buyer-type, home sales split as follows:

• First-time home buyers : 33% of all sales
• Repeat buyers : 47% of all sales
• Real estate investors : 20% of all sales

Cash buyers represented 29 percent of all transaction, down 2 ticks from November. This may suggest that mortgage guidelines are loosening — another sign of economic improvement.

So, take note, Mount Holly home buyers. This spring, along with mortgage rates, home values should rise, too. Expect less “bang for your buck” as the housing recovery takes hold here in South Philly and across the nation.

The best deals of the year may be the ones made this month.

Home remodeling projects can add function to a home, but don’t always add value. Consider the latest report from Remodeling Magazine. 

In it, the average cost of 35 projects are evaluated for the value they retain at the time of resale. Function beats flash, it seems, in today’s housing market.

Expansive kitchens and custom vanities are returning less value to homeowners in Palmyra  on a percentage basis than energy-efficient doors and windows, for example.

A sampling of Remodeling Magazine’s Cost vs Resale report shows the following cost recovery, by project:

• Attic Bedroom Remodel : 79.90 percent cost recovery
• Bathroom Addition : 74.90 percent cost recovery
• Bathroom Addition (Upscale) : 72.80 percent cost recovery
• Home Office Remodel : 63.40 percent cost recovery
• Minor Kitchen Remodel : 85.20 percent cost recovery
• Major Kitchen Remodel : 75.90 percent cost recovery
• Roofing Replacement : 73.90 percent cost recovery
• Window Replacement (Wood) : 85.30 percent cost recovery

Overall, “green” projects are returning a high percentage of costs to remodeling homeowners — especially for respect to homes that are “over-improved” with respect to the neighbors.

CNNMoney.com hosts a “Will This Renovation Pay Off?” calculator on its website, based on the data from Remodeling Magazine’s annual report. It may be a helpful guide for you. That said, before starting a home improvement project, regardless of whether your goal is increase your home’s resale value or to improve its function, be sure to talk with a real estate agent that knows your neighborhood well.

At worst, you’ll gain insight to what’s “typical” for your area to work into your plan, and, at best, you’ll keep yourself from over-improving your home.

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report.

More commonly called “the jobs report”, the government’s data include raw employment figures and the Unemployment Rate.

The jobs report hit the wires at 8:30 AM ET today. It’s making big waves in the mortgage market and may help home affordability for buyers in Philadelphia this weekend, and would-be refinancers across New Jersey.

For this month, and for the rest of 2011, employment data will figure big in mortgage markets.

7 million jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009. Fewer than one million jobs were recovered in 2010. For the economy to fully recover, analysts believe that jobs growth is paramount.

Consider how job creation influences the economy:

1. More jobs means more income and more spending
2. More spending means more business growth
3. More business growth means more job creation

It’s a self-reinforcing cycle and, as business grows, the economy expands, pushing stock markets higher. This tends to lead mortgage rates higher, too, because bonds can lose their appeal when stock markets gain.

According to the government, 103,000 jobs were created in December, and October’s and November’s figures were revised higher by a net 50,000 jobs for a total of 153,000 new jobs created. Economists expected a net gain of 135,000.

The Unemployment rate fell to 9.4, its lowest level since mid-2009.

Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now. Mortgage bonds are improving, pointing to slightly lower mortgage rates today.

The December jobs report was “average”, and home affordability is improving.