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Consumers keep spending, the economy keeps growing.

Mortgage rates are easing lower this morning on just-released, slightly worse-than-expected Retail Sales data from December 2010.

Excluding motor vehicles and auto parts, December’s sales receipts were $1.5 billion higher from November. Analysts had expected a number north of $2 billion.

Despite falling short of estimates, however, December’s reading is the highest in Retail Sales history, surpassing the previous record set in July 2008, set during the recession. In addition, December’s strong numbers helped 2010’s year-over-year numbers go positive for the first time in 3 years.

Although the data is a mixed bag for Wall Street, home affordability in Palmyra is improving today.

The link between Retail Sales and home affordability may not be up-front obvious, but in a post-recession economy like ours, it’s often tight. Retail Sales is another name for “consumer spending” and consumer spending makes up more that 70% of the U.S. economy.

As spending grows, the economy tends to, too.

Investors recognize this and start chasing “risk”. It becomes a boost for the stock market, but those gains are made at the expense of “safe” asset classes which include mortgage-backed bonds. Mortgage-backed bonds are the basis for conforming and FHA mortgage rates so, as bond markets sell off, asset prices fall and rates move up.

Thankfully, rate shoppers will avoid that scenario today — at least for today. December’s Retail Sales results are a factor in the bond market’s early-day improvement. Conforming and FHA mortgage rates across the state of Pennsylvania should be lower today.

Despite the good news, if you’re shopping for a mortgage, consider locking your rate as soon as possible. Mortgage rates are coming off a 2-week rally and look poised to reverse appear — especially with a full docket of data due for next week. As mortgage rates rise, purchasing power falls.

For some homeowners, electing to take an adjustable rate mortgage over a fixed rate one can be matter of budgeting. ARMs tend to carry lower mortgage rates and, therefore, lower monthly mortgage payment as compared to a comparable fixed rate loan.

Relative to fixed rate mortgages, current ARM pricing is excellent. Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 5-year ARM mortgage rate lower than the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate by 1.02 percent.

On a $250,000 home loan, a 1.02 differential yields a payment savings of $149 per month.

ARMs are not for everyone, of course. Over time their rates can change and that can frighten people. An ARM can finish its respective 30-year lifespan with a mortgage rate as much as 6 percentage points higher from where it started. Some homeowners won’t like this.

Other homeowners, however, won’t mind it. For this group,  the ARM can be a terrific fit. Especially with the huge, relative discount in today’s pricing.

A few scenarios that should warrant consideration of a 5-year ARM include homeowners that are:

1. Buying a new home with the intent to sell within 5 years
2. Currently financed with a 30-year fixed mortgage with plans to sell within 5 years
3. Interested in low payments; comfortable with longer-term rate and payment uncertainty

In addition, homeowners with existing ARMs due for adjustment may want to refinance into a new ARM, if only to push the first adjustment date farther into the future.

Before choosing to go with an ARM, speak with your loan officer about how adjustable rate mortgages work, and their near- and long-term risks. Payment savings may be tempting, but with an ARM, payments are permanent.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, the number of foreclosure filings nationwide dropped for the second straight month in December. After falling 21 percent in November, filings were down by an additional 2 percent in December.

“Foreclosure filing” is a catch-all term, comprising default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions.

Like most months, a small number of states dominated December’s national foreclosure figures. 6 states accounted for more than 50 percent of all bank repossessions.

1. California : 17% of all repossessions
2. Florida : 11% of all repossessions
3. Arizona : 6% of all repossessions
4. Michigan : 6% of all repossessions
5. Texas : 6% of all repossessions
6. Nevada : 4% of all repossessions

December’s foreclosure filings fell to its lowest levels since June 2008, but we can’t read into the report too much just yet. Foreclosure volume continue to be dampened by lawsuits and moratoriums related to controversy surrounding the so-called robo-signers.

Foreclosure activity may have lessened in December anyway, but we can’t know for certain.

Distressed properties are in high demand among home buyers, accounting for one-third of all home sales; typically sold at a steep, 15 percent discount as compared to non-distressed properties.

Buying foreclosures can be a terrific “deal”.

That said, buying a foreclosed home is different from buying a non-foreclosed home. Specifically, because you’re buying from a bank and not a person, contracts may vary from what’s “customary” and negotiations may be drawn-out.

It’s one reason why buyers in Palmyra  — first-timers and investors alike — should talk with a real estate agent before writing an offer for a foreclosed property. You can learn a lot from the internet, but when it comes time to actually purchase a home, you’ll want an experienced professional on your side.

When a garbage disposal clogs, a plumber’s service call in Palmyra can cost as much as $100 just for showing up. A “fix” could add even more to that bill.

To minimize the likelihood of costly repairs, therefore, be mindful of how your disposal works, and where its limitations lie.

Most clogs are the result of how certain food waste reacts with water and there’s some items you should never flush down your sink. This is because everything sent through the disposal eventually must make its way down the waste line and that can include a trap.

Over time, the trap can get blocked.

With that in mind, here’s a short list of food waste that’s better suited for the garbage can than the kitchen sink:

• Rice and pasta : Small particles can never be completely pulverized, and will swell in the presence of water. This can clog pipes and traps.
• Egg shells : Tiny, granular waste can get “bound” with pipe sludge, creating a thick clog.
• Coffee grounds : Same as for egg shells. As a clog thickens, it’s harder for water to pass through.
• Grease : Liquid fats turn to solid when in contact with cold water. Over time, this creates a clog like plaque on an artery.
• Potato peels : Once ground, peels turn starchy like mashed potatoes. This can clog a drain pipe instantly.

With kitchen garbage disposals, the general rule for flushing food should be “when in doubt, leave it out”. Use your disposal for convenience, not for a trash chute substitute.

The housing market continues to expand, and surprise.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, November’s Pending Home Sales Index gained 3 percent from October. A “pending home sale” is a home under contract but not yet closed.

The index is now at its highest point since April 2010’s federal tax credit contract expiration deadline.

If the tax credit really did “borrow” sales from the summer months, as has been theorized, housing has rebuilt its foundation.

We know this because, of all the housing data available to Philadelphia homeowners and home buyers, the Pending Home Sales Index stands apart as a forward-looking report — its designed purpose as described in its methodology.

Because 80% of all homes under contract close within 60 days, and a statistically significant share of the rest close within months 3 and 4, the Pending Home Sales Index is an excellent predictor of future Existing Home Sales data.

This is in contrast to the New Home Sales data and Case-Shiller Index, as examples, which both describe the real estate market as it existed two months in the past. The Pending Home Sales Index reports on housing as it exists right now. We should expect January’s Existing Home Sales report, therefore, to show marked strength, consistent with a housing market recovery. And if you have read this blog before, I’m not going to bore you yet again explaining why Case-Schiller is really not relevant to the Philadelphia market place.

The downside of the Pending Home Sales Index is that it’s a national report and real estate is not sold nationally — it’s sold locally. To get a feel for your home market and how it’s faring, talk to a licensed real estate agent with access to local home sale data. I think you’ll find, as we are in our offices, that buyer interest is higher than it has been and that the normal cycle of real estate sales is resuming this year.

If pending sales data is available, so much the better. Forward-looking figures can be more helpful than data that’s already old.

With 2010 coming to a close, the “experts” are out in full force, making predictions for next year’s housing and mortgage markets on business television and in the papers.

Predictions for 2011 are wide-ranging:

• Some say home prices will rise in 2011
• Some say home prices will fall in 2011
• Some say mortgage rates will rise in 2011
• Some say mortgage rates will fall in 2011

The problem with housing and mortgage predictions is that — like all predictions — they’re just educated guesses about the future. Nobody knows what will really happen with the housing and mortgage markets in 2011. All anyone can do is theorize. As laypersons, though, it can be hard to separate theory from fact.

Television can make that task even more difficult at times.

As an example, when a well-dressed economist goes on CNBC and presents a clear, succinct argument for why home prices will fall on 2011, we’re inclined to believe the analysis and conclusion. After all, the outcome seems plausible outcome given the facts. But then, immediately after, a different economist presents an opposite argument — that home prices will rise in 2011 — and her analysis seems sound, too.

Even Freddie Mac can’t see the future.

Last year, the government group predicted mortgage rates to 6 percent in 2010. That never happened, of course. Instead, conforming mortgage rates dropped over a 7-month period this year to levels best be described as “historic”.  Freddie Mac couldn’t have been more wrong.

So, what’s a Philadelphia homeowner to believe?

About the only thing that’s certain right now is that mortgage rates remain low by historical standards, and that home prices do, too. Also, that both housing and mortgage markets appear to be riding momentum higher into 2011.  This suggests that it will be more expensive to buy and finance a home by the end of 2011. However no matter what the result, people who purchase homes for the right reasons, shelter, stability of housing expense, and a place to make their own, will always benefit.

Until that time, however, predictions are just guesses.

The number of single-family Housing Starts increased in November, adding 30,000 units as compared to October.

The Census Bureau defines a “housing start” as a home on which construction has started.

November’s starts represents a 7 percent increase from the month prior. However, if you see the Housing Starts story online or in the papers, you’ll notice that the press is calling the market gain at 4 percent.

So which result is right? The answer is both.

The government’s monthly Housing Starts data is published as a composite report; lumping activity among 3 separate housing types into a single, group reading.

The 3 housing types are:

1. Single-family homes (i.e. 1-unit)
2. Multi-unit homes (i.e. 2-4 units)
3. Apartments (5 units or more)

The group reading is a fair description of the market and it’s easy-to-understand. As a result, it’s what the press tends to report. However, for home buyers in Pennsylvania , it’s the single-family category that’s most relevant.

The reason why single-family homes accounted for 84% of November’s Housing Starts is because that’s the type of home that most buyers buy. Few purchase 2-4 unit properties, and even fewer buy entire apartment complexes.

That said, it’s possible that November’s Housing Starts data is wrong. Within the press release, the government placed an asterisk next to the data, indicating that the figure’s margin of error exceeds its actual measurement.

Against a 7 percent gain, the reported margin of error is 13.5%. There is no statistical evidence, therefore, to prove the actual change was different from zero.

If Housing Starts did fall in November, it will help to reduce the Philadelphia housing inventory, which will, in turn, help keep home prices high. For home sellers, this could mean good news. Fewer homes for sale increase competition among buyers.

According to the United States Fire Administration, in 2008, there were an estimated 378,200 in-home fires. Combined, these fires caused $8 billion in property damage and killed 2,600 people.

Unfortunately, many of affected homes did have smoke detectors installed, but the devices were faulty either because of dead batteries, or because the smoke detector had reached the end of its useful life.

This is why it’s so important to test your home’s smoke detectors at least once annually.

Here’s how to test a smoke detector:

1. Ask a family member or friend to walk to the farthest point of the home from the detector.
2. Push and hold the testing button to activate the alarm. Usually, this takes 5 seconds.
3. Confirm with the family member or friend that the alarm was audible from his/her location.

And there’s an additional step worth taking.

Just because the smoke detector’s alarm works doesn’t mean that the actual smoke detector works. For less than $15, therefore, you may want to buy a “smoke test” from Amazon to confirm whether your detector is faulty. The smoke test simulates a real fire so, if the detector fails to sound when it’s tested, it’s time to replace the entire smoke detector unit.

If you’re making a resolution for the new year, safety for the home should be among them. You never go wrong placing your family first.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, the foreclosure filings fell 21 percent in November to 262,339 units nationwide. A foreclosure filing is defined as default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.

November marked the first time since February 2009 that the number of monthly filings failed to surpass 300,000 units.

There were other notable November statistics, too, included:

• November’s 21 percent month-to-month decrease was the largest in RealtyTrac’s recorded history
• November’s 14 percent year-to-year decrease was the largest in RealtyTrac’s recorded history
• Nevada led the nation in foreclosure activity for the 47th straight month

However, we can’t read into November’s RealtyTrac report too much; ultimately, history may treat it with an asterisk. Controversy surrounding the so-called robo-signers forced some of the biggest banks to institute a temporary halt to foreclosures in November. Foreclosure activity did fall last month, but the moratorium makes the figures look better for housing than if there had been no interference.

The halt in foreclosures is also why Utah leaped into the #2 state for foreclosures nationwide. Perennial foreclosure-leading states like California, Michigan and Arizona posted double-digit improvements in November whereas Utah did not.

Banks have since resumed foreclosure activity so December’s results may be a better gauge for how the market is truly performing.

Foreclosures tend to be sold at discount and low home prices can entice home buyers to make an offer. If you’re such a buyer in Philadelphia Mount Holly and want to look at foreclosed homes, talk to one of our trained agents first. Century 21 Advantage Gold has been selling foreclosed properties for  lenders for over 22 years , and our agents are familiar with the process  so your transaction will be a smoother one.

Although there’s a host of online search engines that specialize in foreclosures, a our agents have access to broader inventory, as well as some properties not yet on the market. Plus they have the  ability to negotiate more effectively.

Preventative care will minimize your home repair costs and, at this time of year, it’s a good idea to sweep your home’s exterior for sign of air leaks and drafts around windows.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, drafty windows can account for 30% of a home’s heat loss in winter so it’s best to find them, and seal them.

In this 4-minute video from the DIY Network, you’ll learn how to identify your home’s leaky windows, and how to seal them with caulk. The job requires a little bit of elbow grease, but it’s manageable for even the notice handyman.

Some of the tips include:

• How to use a lit candle to find windows that leak air
• How to remove existing caulk using caulk softener
• How to “push the bead” of caulk for proper application

The video concludes with a brief tutorial on setting your home’s programmable thermostat so, when taken with the window caulking exercise, homeowners in Philadelphia could stand to save a bundle on their winter heating bills.